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While this quiet period reminds us that municipal insolvency is a rare event, some cities and counties are more vulnerable than others.If the economy enters another recession, some of these at-risk municipalities could be compelled to enter bankruptcy.And even without an economic downturn, these distressed municipalities will be challenged to provide adequate services, avoid tax increases, pay vendors on time and continue operating without imposing unpaid furloughs on their workers.Working with Civic Partner, a firm that collects and analyzes municipal finance data, the California Policy Center has ranked over 490 California cities and counties with respect to their bankruptcy risk.This morning the Labor Department reported that June's unemployment rate is at 9.5%.It's a slight decrease from May, when the unemployment rate was at 9.7%.It is possible that many of these cities have improved their financial condition.

How much emphasis to place on historical performance, debt, unfunded liabilities, cash flow, general fund balance, budget deficits vs surpluses, interest and pension expense, and a host of other relevant data will cause differing results.These metrics are: We then calculate a default probability score based on a weighted average of these four metrics.The scores are calibrated to reflect the estimated probability that a local government will either declare bankruptcy or default on its general obligation bond issues within one year.Due to the healthy response generated by this study, and justifiable expressions of concern by many whose cities we found to be financially stressed, we would like to state that the rankings developed herein are based on information contained in 2013 financial statements, that is, financial statements for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2013.Therefore the data we used is nearly 18 months old.

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